950321-Short-Term Forecasting-NOUS40 (fwd)

• To: nws-changes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
• Subject: 950321-Short-Term Forecasting-NOUS40 (fwd)
• From: Linda Miller <lmiller@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
• Date: Tue, 21 Mar 1995 15:35:38 -0700 (MST)

TO -      FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS

FROM -    DONALD R. WERNLY...CHIEF...WARNING AND FORECAST BRANCH

SUBJECT - FORMAT CHANGES FOR SHORT-TERM FORECASTS
          ...PART 1 OF A 2-PART MESSAGE...

     THE PURPOSE OF THIS LETTER IS TO LET YOU KNOW OF FORMAT
CHANGES THE NWS WILL MAKE TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PRODUCT
BEGINNING FEBRUARY 22...1995.  THE GENERAL PRODUCT IDENTIFIER
CATEGORY IS - NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ - NOW  --  FAMILY
OF SERVICES /FOS/ - FXUS21.  YOUR LOCAL NWS OFFICE WILL PROVIDE
SPECIFIC PRODUCT IDENTIFIERS FOR YOUR LOCATION.  ALTHOUGH THOSE
OFFICES ISSUING SHORT-TERM FORECASTS BY THE IMPLEMENTATION DATE
ARE REQUIRED TO FOLLOW THE NEW FORMAT...SOME HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
USING THE NEW FORMAT. ALSO...SOME OFFICES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ISSUING THE PRODUCT LATER THIS YEAR OR WHEN NEW TECHNOLOGY
BECOMES AVAILABLE TO THEM.  AS NEW OFFICES BEGIN PARTICIPATING IN
THIS PROGRAM...THEY WILL ISSUE APPROPRIATE INFORMATION STATEMENTS
PROVIDING DETAILS IN ADVANCE OF IMPLEMENTATION.

     OTHER THAN TO ENSURE RECEIPT OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTS BY USE
OF APPROPRIATE IDENTIFIERS...USERS NEED NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THEIR
OPERATIONS TO RECEIVE AN NWS OFFICE/S ENTIRE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
PRODUCT.  USERS MAY...HOWEVER...MAKE USE OF THE ADDITIONAL
DELIMITERS IN THE NEW FORMAT FOR MORE SPECIFIC PROCESSING OF ONLY
THE MOST DESIRED PARTS OF THE PRODUCT.  IN PROVIDING MUCH OF THE
SHORT-TERM WEATHER INFORMATION FOR A LOCAL AREA...THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST WILL CAUSE CHANGES TO OTHER PRODUCTS THAT USED TO
PROVIDE SHORT-TERM INFORMATION.  THESE ALSO ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.

     A KEY FACTOR IN THE EARLY STAGE OF NWS/S MODERNIZATION AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRUCTURING IS MEETING STATED USER NEEDS FOR MORE
ACCURATE AND TIMELY SHORT-TERM WEATHER AND FLOOD INFORMATION.  TO
FULFILL THIS REQUIREMENT...THE NWS HAS ENTERED INTO AN AGGRESSIVE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST PROGRAM.  YOU MAY HAVE NOTICED SHORT-TERM
FORECASTS ISSUED FROM MORE AND MORE LOCAL NWS OFFICES ACROSS THE
COUNTRY IN RECENT MONTHS.  THE SHIFT IN EMPHASIS IS TOWARD
PROVIDING A TRUE FORECAST...NOT JUST A SUMMARY OF PAST
CONDITIONS.  THESE FORECASTS ARE DESIGNED TO TELL PEOPLE BRIEFLY
WHAT THE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
NON-TECHNICAL...PLAIN LANGUAGE THAT CAN BE EASILY UNDERSTOOD.
THE GOAL IS TO ISSUE THESE PRODUCTS FREQUENTLY ENOUGH...DEPENDING
ON AVAILABLE TECHNOLOGY AND ADEQUATE OFFICE RESOURCES...TO ENSURE
THAT THEY ACCURATELY REFLECT THE ONGOING WEATHER.

     THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PROGRAM HAS BEEN EXPERIMENTAL THE
PAST COUPLE OF YEARS WITH GUIDELINES ALLOWING DIFFERING
FORMATS...WITH DIFFERING KINDS AND PRIORITY OF INCLUDED
INFORMATION.  REGARDLESS OF FORMATS...FORECASTERS HAVE BEEN USING
DATA FROM ENHANCED OBSERVING TOOLS...WHEREVER AVAILABLE...TO
PROVIDE INCREASINGLY ACCURATE AND TIMELY PRODUCTS.  ALONG WITH
TRADITIONAL DATA SOURCES...THESE NEW TOOLS INCLUDE DOPPLER
RADAR...AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEMS...UPGRADED SATELLITE
INFORMATION...LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS AND PROFILER NETWORKS
THAT PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL WIND INFORMATION.

      THE NWS CAN NOW PROVIDE FURTHER CONSISTENCY IN THE FORMAT
AND CONTENT OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PRODUCTS THROUGH LESSONS
LEARNED DURING THIS EXTENDED EXPERIMENTAL PERIOD.  THESE LESSONS
CAME FROM SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS AND VALUABLE
FEEDBACK FROM MANY USERS...INCLUDING MEDIA REPRESENTATIVES FROM
RADIO...TELEVISION AND CABLE FACILITIES...AND PRIVATE
METEOROLOGISTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS.  WE FULLY EXPECT THAT THE
PRODUCT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH FURTHER INTERACTION WITH
OUR USERS AND ADDITIONAL ADVANCES IN FORECASTING TECHNIQUES.

     FOLLOWING ARE HOW SOME OTHER PRODUCTS THAT USED TO PROVIDE
SHORT-TERM INFORMATION WILL BE HANDLED BECAUSE OF THE
INTRODUCTION OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PRODUCT.

     SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT /NWWS IDENTIFIER - SPS
FOS IDENTIFIER - WWUS35

     OFFICES ISSUING SHORT-TERM FORECASTS WILL NOT NORMALLY ISSUE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO DESCRIBE SHORT-TERM WEATHER
INFORMATION.

     SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED TO
UPDATE LONGER-TERM EVENTS SUCH AS FOLLOWUPS TO WINTER OR
NON-PRECIPITATION WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY PRODUCTS...IN SITUATIONS
WHERE SOME EXPLANATION OR TECHNICAL REASONING IS NEEDED INCLUDING
ADDING CALLS TO ACTION STATEMENTS...TO PROVIDE SUMMARY
INFORMATION OR TO CLEAR COUNTIES FROM A CONVECTIVE WATCH.

     SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT/ NWWS - SVS    --   FOS - WWUS34
     FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT/    NWWS - FFS    --   FOS - RWUS32
     MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT/ NWWS - MWS    --   FOS - FZUS60

     THESE PRODUCTS ISSUED FROM OFFICES ISSUING SHORT-TERM
FORECASTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO BRIEF INFORMATION FOLLOWING
SPECIFIC SHORT-TERM WARNINGS AND REPORTED SEVERE WEATHER.

     RADAR NARRATIVE SUMMARY/  NWWS - RNS    --   FOS - SDXX1

     THIS PRODUCT...THAT PROVIDES RECENT PAST MOVEMENT OF RADAR
ECHOES...IS NOT A FORECAST AND IS BEING PHASED OUT AS OFFICES
BEGIN ISSUING THE MORE USEFUL SHORT-TERM FORECAST FOR THE SAME
AREAS.

END OF PART 1 OF 2