175
NOUS40 KWBC 081128
FOS/NOAAPORT NOTICE NO. 1931 MAY 8... 2001
ATTENTION FAMILY OF SERVICES SUBSCRIBERS/NOAAPORT USERS
SUBJECT NOTICE OF INTENT TO CHANGE MRF MOS GUIDANCE
EFFECTIVE WITH THE 0000 UTC FORECAST CYCLE ON MAY 9... 2001...
GUIDANCE FOR THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ADDED
TO THE MRF MOS MESSAGES. THESE MESSAGES ARE IDENTIFIED WITH
WMO HEADERS FEPA20... FEUS21-FEUS26... AND FEAK37-FEAK39... AND
ARE STORED AS MEX PRODUCTS IN THE AWIPS TEXT DATA BASE. THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE PROVIDES FORECASTS
OF THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM IN A 12- OR 24-H PERIOD.
BECAUSE THE THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE WAS DEVELOPED FROM
LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA OBTAINED FROM THE NATIONAL LIGHTNING
DETECTION NETWORK... GUIDANCE IS ONLY PROVIDED FOR SITES IN
THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES. THE 12-H PROBABILITIES LABELED
AS T12 ARE VALID FOR PERIODS OF 12-24... 24-36... 36-48... AND
180-192 HOURS AFTER 0000 UTC. THE 24-H PROBABILITIES ARE
LABELED AS T24 AND ARE VALID 12-36... 36-60... 60-84... 84-108...
108-132 132-156... AND 156-180 HOURS AFTER 0000 UTC. MORE
DETAILS ON THE GUIDANCE MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES
HTTP/COLON///WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/TDL/SYNOP/MOS2000.HTM
HTTP/COLON///WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/TDL/SYNOP/CAFTIKKH/INDEX.HTM
HTTP/COLON///WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/TDL/SYNOP/CAFTIMAY7
FOR FOS/NOAAPORT QUESTIONS PLEASE CONTACT JULIE HAYES
PHONE 301 713-0864 EXTENSION 120
EMAIL JULIE.HAYES/AT SYMBOL/NOAA.GOV
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE TECHNIQUES USED IN DEVELOPING THE MRF
MOS THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE ARE ANALOGOUS TO THOSE USED IN
DEVELOPING THE THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE FROM THE AVN MODEL.
THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO POSTED ON THE NWS SYSTEMS OPERATIONS
CENTER CHANGE NOTICES WEB PAGE. THE URL IS LISTED BELOW.
HTTP/COLON///WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OSO/NOTICES/NOTICES2.SHTML
DATA MANAGEMENT
DATA DISSEMINATION BRANCH
TELECOMMUNICATION OPERATIONS CENTER
RTH WASHINGTON SENDS
---------- End Forwarded Message ----------
