340
NOUS41 KWBC 191526
PNSWSH
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...COMMENT REQUEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2003
TO FAMILY OF SERVICES /FOS/ SUBSCRIBERS...NOAA WEATHER
WIRE SERVICE /NWWS/ SUBSCRIBERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS
WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK /EMWIN/ SUBSCRIBERS...
NOAAPORT SUBSCRIBERS...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
/NWS/ CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS...AND NWS EMPLOYEES
FROM ROBERT E. LIVEZEY
CHIEF...CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION
SUBJECT CURRENTLY SOLICITING PUBLIC COMMENTS BY JULY 18 2003 ON
PROPOSED PROBABILITY FORMAT CHANGES TO ONE-MONTH AND
THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS
WE ARE SOLICITING YOUR COMMENTS BY JULY 18 2003 ON PLANS TO
CHANGE THE PROBABILITY FORMATS ON THE ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH
OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/.
PLEASE SEND COMMENTS ON THE FOLLOWING PROPOSAL BY ACCESSING THE
WEB PAGE LISTED BELOW /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/
COMMENT-FORM-LL.HTML
OR WRITE TO
ROBERT LEFFLER AND BARBARA MAYES
NOAA/NWS CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION W/OS4
1325 EAST-WEST HIGHWAY
SILVER SPRING MD 20910
BACKGROUND
CPC EXPRESSES THE OUTLOOKS IN A 3-CATEGORY PROBABILISTIC FORMAT
AS THE CHANCE THE MEAN TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
PERIOD WILL FALL INTO THE MOST LIKELY OF THREE CLASSES: ABOVE...
BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL. CPC DEFINES THE CLASSES AS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY EQUALLY LIKELY: THE TOP 10 CASES OF A THIRTY
YEAR RECORD DEFINE THE ABOVE CATEGORY /A/...THE MIDDLE 10 CASES
DEFINE THE NORMAL CATEGORY /N/... AND THE BOTTOM 10 CASES DEFINE
THE BELOW CATEGORY /B/. FOR AREAS WHERE A FAVORED CLASS CANNOT
BE DETERMINED...CPC WILL INDICATE THOSE AREAS WITH "EC".
PROPOSED CHANGE
FOR THE MOST LIKELY CLASS...CPC WOULD INDICATE THE TOTAL
PROBABILITY INSTEAD OF THE PROBABILITY ANOMALY FROM THE 33
PERCENT CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUE. THE CONTOURS OF A FAVORED CATEGORY
WOULD BE 33+ PERCENT...40 PERCENT...50 PERCENT...AND HIGHER
VALUES IN INCREMENTS OF 10 PERCENT.
CPC WOULD STILL INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY CLASS WITH SOLID CONTOUR
LINES ON THE MAPS AND LABEL THE CENTERS OF MAXIMUM PROBABILITY
ANOMALY WITH THE LETTERS A...N...OR B TO DENOTE THE MOST LIKELY
CLASS. FOR AREAS WHERE A FAVORED CLASS CANNOT BE DETERMINED...
CPC WILL STILL INDICATE THOSE AREAS WITH "EC" AND NOT HAVE
CONTOURS.
THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS WOULD BE AFFECTED BY THIS PROPOSAL
1. THREE-MONTH OUTLOOK MAPS FOR CONTIGUOUS U.S. AND ALASKA
LEAD TIME IS INDICATED BY THE NUMBER IN THE WMO HEADING AND LAST
LETTER IN THE AWIPS ID. /I.E. 01 AND A HAVE A LEAD TIME OF 0.5
MONTH... 02 AND B HAVE A LEAD TIME OF 1.5 MONTHS... ETC./
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
PTIW/01-13/ KWBC RBGLT/A-M/ PEIW/01-13/ KWBC RBGLE/A-M/
ON THE WEB /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/
2. ONE-MONTH OUTLOOK MAPS FOR CONTIGUOUS U.S. AND ALASKA
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
PTIV98 KWNC RBG9MT PEIV98 KWNC RBG9ME
ON THE WEB /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/30DAY/
3. ONE-MONTH AND THREE MONTH HAWAIIAN TEXT OUTLOOKS
/TOTAL PROBABILITY FOR MOST LIKELY CLASS FOR SELECTED CITIES/
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
FXHW40 KWBC PMDHCO
ON THE WEB /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/
FXHW40.HTML
THIS NOTICE AND OTHER NOTIFICIATION MESSAGES CAN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
THIS PARTICULAR MESSAGE IS LISTED AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE...ABOVE
THE SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE AND TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE
BOX.
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