[nws-changes] 20120702: short range ensemble fcst system

• To: nws-changes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
• Subject: [nws-changes] 20120702: short range ensemble fcst system
• From: Linda Miller <lmiller@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
• Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2012 06:35:37 -0600

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Technical Implementation Notice 12-33
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
815 AM EDT Mon Jul 2 2012

To:       Subscribers:
          -Family of Services
          -NOAA Weather Wire Service
          -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
          -NOAAPORT
          Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

From:     Timothy McClung
          Chief, Science Plans Branch
          Office of Science and Technology

Subject:  Impact on Downstream Jobs When Cycle of Short Range
          Ensemble Forecast System is Missing:
          Effective August 1 2012

On or about Tuesday, August 1, 2012, beginning with the 1500
Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) Short Range Ensemble Forecast
System (SREF) will be updated. See NWS TIN 12-30 for specific
details about this SREF upgrade.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin12-30sref.htm

Due to the current high resource usage on the supercomputers run
by NCEP, this updated SREF system can only be run in its defined
time window.  In the event that the NCEP production suite is
delayed for any reason, the SREF may not be run for a given
cycle, so as to preserve the timeliness of other NCEP models. In
this situation, no SREF output products will be disseminated, and
that cycle will not be rerun at a later time. The SREF will
remain in this configuration until the upgrade to the next
supercomputers in late 2013. We apologize for any inconvenience
this causes our users.

Listed below are impacts related to missing a SREF cycle,
including effects to downstream products that use SREF input:

1. Dissemination: No SREF products for that cycle will be
disseminated.  This list includes NOAAPORT, the NWS and NCEP FTP
servers, the Model Analysis and Guidance (MAG) Webpage
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov

and the Real-Time NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution
System (NOMADS)
http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov).

2. MDLs Gridded LAMP:  When SREF data are missing for a
particular cycle, it will automatically use a previous cycles
SREF data as input.

3. DNG-NAM smartinit: When SREF data are missing for a NAM DNG
cycle, the DNG codes will use the Global Ensemble Forecast System
(GEFS) to generate the probability of precipitation fields.

4. HREF: When SREF data are missing for a cycle, it will be
treated as a 2-member (hiresw NMM and ARW) ensemble.

5. SPC-SREF: If a SREF cycle is missing, Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) post-processing does not activate and SREF-based grids and
products are not updated until the next available SREF cycle.
This would also impact the SPC SREF Web page which lists the
latest cycle time from which output is available:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/index.php,

6. AWC-ECFP:   If a SREF cycle is missing, Aviation Weather
Center (AWC) post-processing does not activate and the Extended
Convective Forecast Product (ECFP) will not update until the next
available SREF cycle.  The ECFP web page shows the last SREF
cycle used in the production of the ECFP.

http://www.aviationweather.gov/products/ecfp/

For questions regarding the scientific content of the modeling
system please contact:

     Geoff Dimego
     NCEP/EMC
     Camp Springs Maryland 20746
     Phone: 301-763-8000 x 7221
Geoff.Dimego@xxxxxxxx
or
     Jun Du
     NCEP/EMC
     Camp Springs Maryland 20746
     Phone: 301-763-8000 x 7593
Jun.Du@xxxxxxxx

For questions regarding the dataflow aspects of these data sets
please contact:

     NCEP/NCO Dataflow Team
     Camp Springs, Maryland 20746
     Phone: 301-763-8000 x 7198
     Email: ncep.list.pmb-dataflow@xxxxxxxx

National technical Implementation Notices are online at:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notif.htm

$$